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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Does this help the Barbados negotiations?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Maduro government released two American prisoners yesterday and returned them shortly after to prison allegedly because of an airplane issue. It seems more likely that this episode was part of the most critical prisoner exchange that Maduro has ever carried out, involving the release of Alex ...

The LDO was approved, the Senate should vote on the ICMS subsidy MP today, and the House is expected to vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2023

Yesterday, the National Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). The text now goes for presidential sanction. Also today, the Senate should vote on Provisional Measure Nº 1,185, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own Capital (JCP). The text was approved last week and is p...

Azerbaijan: Central bank eases further to 8.00 percent from 8.50 percent previously
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan lowered the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 8.00 percent. The central bank was the last one in the region to transition into easing, having cut the policy rate for the first time only in Nov. Thus, cumulative cuts amount to 100bpts for the year. The central bank point...

Georgia: Central bank cuts policy rate by 50bpts to 9.5 percent
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The National Bank of Georgia decreased the refinancing rate by 50bpts to 9.50 percent. There was some uncertainty about the decision given the message that the central bank sent at the previous policy meeting in Oct when it specifically referred to elevated geopolitical risk in the region as the ...

Laying the groundwork for elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Faced with a high likelihood that a competitive election could lead Maduro to lose power or that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling could hand Guyana a victory, the government has chosen the defense of the Essequibo as a way to unify the people against two enemies, one external (Guya...

Growth performance mixed, as political turmoil rises.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Costa Rica’s 2023 economic performance looks promising, according to economic activity figures to October. Domestic political conditions continue as reported since June 2022, with tense relations between the government and the opposition, but seemingly with little impact on the course of business...

A slightly more optimistic year-end
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 19 Dec 2023 · 1 response

As 2023 winds down, there’s good news in the macroeconomic sphere: inflation reached its target level of 4% y/y in October, and the economic activity growth rate strengthened, to 3.6% y/y, after hitting rock bottom last June, with a mere 0.1% y/y growth. The number of tourists arriving by air and...

MNB base rate down 75 bps today, to end 2023 at 10.75%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

The Monetary Council held its last regular monthly rate-setting meeting today, this time also discussing the Q4 inflation report. The decision was a 75 bps cut of the base rate and the interest rate corridor alike, the same way as it happened in the previous two months: After the meeting, vice go...

The LDO should be put to a vote today, the Senate is set to vote on the ICMS subsidy MP, and the House is expected to vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Dec 2023

A session of the National Congress is scheduled for today to vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Last week, the Joint Budget Committee approved the report submitted by the rapporteur, Deputy Danilo Forte (União Brasil-CE). Today, the House may vote on the online sports betting bill. The defi...

Economics: Continuing strength in US and Mexico activity with controlled inflation bode well for 2024 despite hawkish monetary policy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Dec 2023

The economic outlook for year-end 2023 and 2024 remains mixed. Continuing progress in international economic activity has been encouraging, with US GDP growth driven by personal consumption in goods and services, an expansion that has defied the Fed’s hawkish stance since the beginning of 2022, a...

EU sanctions Russian diamonds
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2023

On December 18 the 12th sanctions package was approved. It had been delayed because of Austrian objections related to Ukraine's placing Raiffeisen Bank, which still operates in Russia, on its list of sponsors of war. The diamond ban relates to both synthetic and natural diamonds as well as those ...

Politics: Voter support for Xóchitl slips while that of Claudia and Morena may have run up against a hard ceiling
MEXICO · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This week we are releasing the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters on the general situation of the country and electoral preferences. It delivered results very similar to those of last September, but the numbers that departed from the results of three months ago may ...

Two battles in sight and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress, which recesses on Friday, December 22. Before this, the votes must be completed on the MP for the ICMS subsidy, online betting, the LDO and the 2024 Federal Budget. Tax Reform will be enacted on Wednesday, and Lula will lead a ministeri...

Fiscal Stimuli, Monetary Accommodation and GDP Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Dec 2023

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...

This is the final week of activity before Congress recesses, the Senate should vote on the ICMS subsidy MP tomorrow, and the House may vote on the online sports betting bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2023

This is the final week of activity in Congress, with important issues to be concluded. Congress recesses on Friday, December 22. Work will resume on February 2. On Tuesday, December 19, the Senate should vote on Provisional Measure Nº 1,185, which deals with the ICMS subsidy and Interest on Own C...

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