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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Hopes for an economic rally rise
UKRAINE · Forecast · 22 Oct 2019

People are calling the new Verkhovna Rada the “green (or mad) printer”: green for the Sluha Narodu’s party colors, and printer due to the speed at which this legislature is spitting out bills. Debates over legislation are very brief and largely token, which means that Ukraine will likely discover...

Oslo talks, uncertainty, and sanctions will continue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Oct 2019

After two months of silence, the regime seems to have presented a counteroffer to Norwegian diplomats mediating Venezuelan regime–opposition talks. The details aren’t public, but it’s likely that it follows the agreement the regime reached with the four minority ‘loyal” opposition parties. That a...

Essential CIS Politics: October 2019
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019

The Russian economy is growing only very modestly, but public finances are sound. The Ukrainian conflict has slowed down, and Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to the Steinmeier Formula, which has caused protests in Ukraine. Belarus and Russia have agreed in principle to tangible progress on reunificat...

Low risk of alteration in the Pension Reform proposal and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019

President Bolsonaro will spend the week travelling through Asia and the Middle East. The Senate votes on the second round of Pension Reform. The government has promised to announce a post-Pension Reform agenda on Wednesday, October 23. The STF discusses arrests following conviction by a higher co...

Politics: Legislative tide, failed security policy
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2019

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has achieved a great deal in Congress in the past few months and weeks to advance the cause of his broader political project. This week we look at a dozen of his most important legislative accomplishments to date as well as a number of lesser bills. While man...

Russian government aims to limit foreign ownership of tech
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

On 21 October the government outlined its proposals to restrict foreign ownership of the internet sector. Yandex and Mail.ru are two of the vital companies in this sector. The limit on foreign ownership will be 50% which is much higher than previously thought. The law must have clear criteria to ...

Economics: Household spending outpaces income
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2019

Following up on our earlier issue on household incomes according to the 2018 National Household Income and Spending Survey (ENIGH for its Spanish acronym), this week we are focusing on the characteristics of household spending and how they have evolved since the prior survey in 2016. Generally sp...

Johannesburg Mayor Herman Mashaba resigns following election of Democratic Alliance’s new Federal Council Chairperson, Helen Zille
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Oct 2019

After the August 2016 municipal elections, Mr. Herman Mashaba assumed office as the Mayor of Johannesburg . He was a member of the Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition party to the ruling African National Congress (ANC). Mr. Mashaba’s taking office as the Mayor of Johannesburg meant that...

​Regarding the recent disturbances in several cities in Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

The impact on financial markets so far has been limited. At 10:50 am the Chilean peso depreciated about 2% against the dollar, in a context in which the exchange rate in several other countries were also increasing, although by somewhat smaller magnitudes. Short-term rates fell 6bp and longer-ter...

The PLD is formally divided
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

Last night, the PLD was formally divided. In a televised speech, former President Leonel Fernández announced his resignation as President and as a member of the PLD. In the speech, Fernandez, who served as President three terms, used very hard qualifications against President Medina and his group...

Russia steps up nuclear weapons tests
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2019

Over the past week Russian nuclear submarines have been conducting drills. Russia is keen to let NATO know that as Trump cancelled the INF the Russians can respond. President Putin was present to witness the exercises. The exercises are called Grom 2019. The government eagerly released press stat...

Growth, international economy and reforms
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Oct 2019 · 1 response

The discussions at the annual IMF meetings always stimulate improvement of scenarios and forecasts. During the last one, the consensus was that the global economy would continue decelerating, largely due to the risks from geopolitical conflicts, the US-China trade war and the Brexit. Hence, the g...

​Gulf weekly: Putin visits, Aramco postpones, Divided Zone restart nears
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Oct 2019

Global attention was focused on the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria, where the US has negotiated a temporary ceasefire but Russia may have a bigger role in determining the longterm term outcome. By chance this happened in a week when Putin was visiting Saudi and the UAE, both of which are deep...

​Tourist arrivals fall for the fourth consecutive month
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Oct 2019

Official figures of the arrival of tourists by air indicate that the bad moment of tourism is being longer than expected. In September, the total number of arrivals fell by 50 thousand (17%) compared to September 2018. It was the fourth consecutive month in which arrivals declined compared to las...

Brace for an extra eventful week
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2019

The “ceasefire” protocol signed between US VP Mike Pence and President Erdogan was dead on arrival, as parties could not even agree on the definition of the safe zone. Both sides have enough ammo to claim by the deadline (Tuesday, October 22, midnight) the ceasefire agreement has been violated, a...

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