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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

André Mendonça’s appointment to the STF was confirmed by the Senate yesterday, the Precatórios PEC will be put to a vote in the Senate today, and the STF continues to discuss the constitutionality of the sanitation framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2021

André Mendonça’s inauguration should take place in the next few days — before the recess of the Judiciary, which begins on December 18. The score was close, 47 votes in favor and 32 against. The Court will now be complete with 11 ministers. The session in the Senate to vote on the Precatórios PEC...

Pandora’s hope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Dec 2021

The Philippine economy withstood a Delta-driven surge in Q3 and is set to end the year on a high note. We forecast GDP growth at 5.5% this year and next, bringing domestic output to pre-pandemic levels only by late 2022. This outlook is based on two critical assumptions: (1) existing vaccines wor...

Russia commences military exercises with South-East Asian allies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

On December 1 the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Russia began their drills in the Straits of Malacca. This is the first time Russia has taken part in drills with ASEAN. The Russian ship Admiral Pantaleev is there. Russia sells a lot of arms to Vietnam. This complicates Russia...

EU Court rapporteur recommends a negative decision for Hungary and Poland on the rule-of-law mechanism
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

This morning's forint-positive news (on MNB policy) has been quickly followed by a negative one, on the EU's new fiscal rule-of-law mechanism.It is that the EU Court's advocate general Manuel Campos Sánchez-Bordona, the rapporteur responsible for the case of the EU's new fiscal rule-of-law mechan...

One-week depo rate up again, MNB governor may have preempted the mid-December statement
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2021

Quite a lot is happening in the field of MNB policy again.First, the MNB has just set the 1-week deposit rate at 3.1% for this week's tender this morning, raising 20 bps from last weeks level. This followed Tuesday's decision to raise the interest rate corridor to 1.6-4.1%, preparing the ground f...

Peru: President Castillo impeachment moves forward
PERU · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021 · 1 response

On November 25th, congress member Ms. Patricia Chirinos from Avanza Pais party started an impeachment process against President Castillo. According to the constitution the impeachment takes three phases. First, and with 26 congressional votes, the process is started; second, with 52 congress memb...

Russia’s pandemic/political update: facing challenges… having created them
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Dec 2021

After a rather mild weekly lockdown in early November, Russia’s daily incidence rate declined gradually from over 40K to 32-33K on November 30 and December 1. Even though the daily death toll remains high, it started to subside as well. Russia’s numbers do not look too high compared to many Europ...

The Precatórios PEC may be approved in the Senate today, André Mendonça’s confirmation hearing will be held in the CCJ today, and the STF resumes trial on the sanitation framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2021

Senator Fernando Bezerra is still negotiating changes to the text of the the Court-ordered payments (Precatórios) PEC to guarantee support for the proposal. The text needs at least 49 votes to be approved. The likelihood is for there to be two texts – one part will be enacted and the other will r...

Ukraine asks for talks with Russia to calm tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021

On December 1 Zelensky made the suggestion amidst Ukrainian claims that Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion. Moscow appears dismissive of the need for talks. It says that the Ukraine conflict is an internal Ukrainian affair. Russia says it has never aided pro-Russian rebels there, and the R...

Consumer credit growth remains strong, albeit slows moderately in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Dec 2021

The Central bank reported that the stock of bank credits to households grew by 1.65% m-o-m in October and reached R25.6 trln. In September credits grew by 1.73% m-o-m versus 1.93% m-o-m in August. Out of this amount, mortgages accounted for R11.4 trln and grew m-o-m by slightly more than 2.0%. Th...

Russia grabbing the headlines, but tapering matters more
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Nov 2021

Ukraine’s economy is performing below expectations, with a disappointing 2.4% of GDP y/y growth in Q3 despite a historically bumper grain crop. To large extent, this is due to postponed harvesting, and there should be a proper upsurge in agroproduction—and GDP growth—in Q4. Still, good harvests a...

​Omicron and the Gulf: The hit to oil is fiscally manageable, as are health risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Nov 2021

The emergence of yet another worrying Covid variant has raised concerns in the Gulf, as it has globally. No cases have been identified in the region yet, but its international connectivity, including as a hub for travel from Africa, does present vulnerabilities, as has been the case for previous ...

Another interest rate step from the MNB: the corridor was raised today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2021

In a brief statement today, the MNB said that at today's meeting, which was not one of its monthly rate-setting meetings by the way, the Monetary Council raised the interest rate corridor significantly and made it asymmetrical. The base rate was left unchanged at 2.1%.The new corridor looks like ...

Well-organized Chavista minority beats disorganized majority opposition
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2021

As we had forecast, the Maduro coalition took most of the seats under contention despite its having won a minority of the votes: with only 46% of the votes, it obtained 19 of 24 governorships and 205 of 335 mayorships. More important is what these elections tell the opposition about the relative ...

Growth composition changes in Q3
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.

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