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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

From macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jun 2024

The approval by the Senate of two legislative projects that the government needs to transition from macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization without significant disruptions, the two-year extension of the swap with China for 5 billion dollars, the disbursement by the IMF of 80...

Faster-than-expected inflation deceleration in an environment of economic contraction
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 May 2024

In the third week of May, the trend towards stability in the informal foreign exchange markets was interrupted. There was an increase in the CCL exchange rate and in country risk for the first time since February. These changes may not signify a reversal of trends but rather a circumstantial a...

Inflation continues to trend downward. For this trend to solidify, the process of the removal of exchange controls must be clearly outlined.
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 May 2024

The monthly inflation rate reported by INDEC for April is expected to be around 8.5%, three percentage points higher than the estimates based on online prices. This disparity is attributed to adjustments in prices and utility tariffs previously heavily controlled and distorted by the former gover...

How close is the unification and liberalization of the exchange market?
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Apr 2024

Favorable financial indicators—the reduction of the gap between the official exchange rate and the pseudo-free exchange rates (the CCL and the "blue"), the accumulation of reserves and the decrease in country risk—are encouraging, but they should not be taken as indicators that the convergence of...

Milei’s first four months
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Apr 2024 · 1 response

In our previous monthly report, we used the reference to the movie “The Matrix” to conceptually illustrate the costly process of “awakening” an economy from its unsustainable macro policies. The economy would be awakened to a reality that is fiscally and monetary more sustainable, with better inv...

Patience and trust, with sticks and carrots
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2024

Friday night´s “Address to the Nation”, at the opening session of the Congress, was quite insightful for an event that is often used by presidents merely to praise their own mandates. Milei presented a broad-based overview of his immediate and medium-term political goals. All of these are, in gen...

The complex awakening from the Kirchnerist "Matrix"
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Feb 2024

Leaving aside Mauricio Macri’s four-year mandate, Argentina has been immersed over the last 23 years in an economic environment defined by taxing state interventions into basic individual economic decisions. Repeatedly, the “Kirchnerist” governments tackled macroeconomic imbalances by applying mi...

Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024

In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...

Charting the economic course under President Milei: a 2024 projection
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 11 Jan 2024

In the brief span since December 10, President Milei's administration has unleashed a barrage of announcements and policy announcements that surpass the combined dynamism witnessed during the eight years of the Macri and Fernandez governments. This fervor signals Milei's commitment to transformat...

Does Milei’s reform program risk insurmountable resistance?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2023

Last night, in a recorded speech on national television, President Javier Milei announced the signature of a Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU), which includes more than 300 reform points. He gave his speech in the company of all his cabinet (who had co-signed the DNU), with the addition of Fe...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Slide Presentation - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Dec 2023

Gain insights on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda—all with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration".

Waiting for the economic announcements after Milei's inauguration
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Dec 2023

Over the past few weeks ahead of last Sunday’s inauguration, Javier Milei has shown a much-needed degree of pragmatism. Not only did he put his more extreme proposals on the back burner, but he also incorporated former JxC officials in key positions in his cabinet. He even went as far as calling ...

In a historic ballotage the libertarian newcomer defeated a united Peronism, signaling the end of a “toxic status quo”
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2023

In last Sunday's runoff election, the Libertarian Javier Milei managed a surprisingly solid victory against the incumbent Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa. With a result of 55.7% against 44.3% (accounting for only the valid vote), Milei obtained a better-than-expected lead of nearly 11pp. ...

Ahead of Sunday’s runoff vote, Massa slightly edges Milei in the final presidential debate
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Nov 2023

As usually happens in runoff elections, particularly between those representing “extreme” political viewpoints, candidates generally seek to attract the undecided median voter. Sergio Massa, the candidate representing the current government, attempted to blast the libertarian independent Javier ...

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