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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mixed macro data reported again in recent days
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2024

In the past week, Mr. Orbán's lively diplomatic manoeuvres took all of the limelight, but there were also important data releases. Some of the new figures were quite positive, but others were not, and so the overall picture was not particularly impressive.First, the Q1 general government deficit ...

PM Orbán indeed showed up in Moscow today. But why?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

Mr. Orbán indeed travelled to Moscow today, meeting president Putin, talking mainly about the war in Ukraine. They held a press conference afterwards, where Mr. Orbán said that he understands that the period of Hungary's rotating EU presidency is also a kind of a peace mission. A Kremlin spokesma...

PM Orbán is supposedly on his way to Moscow at this moment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jul 2024

PM Orbán met Ukrainian president Zelensky on Tuesday this week (July 2). This meeting was followed by an impressive amount of media noise, created by the affected governments, other politicians, political analysts and journalists all around the world. Most of the post-meeting comments appeared to...

PM Orbán and two other European politicians launched a new European Parliament faction today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2024

PM Orbán's Fidesz-KDNP, together with Czechia's ANO party (which left the liberal Renew faction in June) and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ, so far member of the radical right-winger Identity and Democracy faction) announced the establishment of a new party group within the European Parliament, und...

The EU's 14th package of sanctions on Russia: what is Hungary's dependence on Russian LNG?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

The following is supposed to be a brief clarification of Hungarian dependence on the imports of Russian LNG. This is not because the EU's 14th sanction package, approved just a few days ago, would prohibit or block in any way the imports of LNG from Russia, because it obviously does not do that. ...

European and local elections have changed domestic politics substantially
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2024 · 1 response

In the European election of June 9, Mr. Orbán’s hopes that the radical right would beat the mainstream bloc were essentially dashed, despite the former indeed making some moderate gains. His immediate response was a sharp turn in external policies, holding back Hungary's blocking votes against NA...

Analysts expect only 25bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

Ten out of twelve analysts surveyed by Portfolio.hu are saying now that the Monetary Council is likely to reduce the monthly base rate cut to 25 bps at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting. The remaining two are saying that a 50 bps cut is still more likely. Until 2-3 weeks ago, the predominant analys...

The European Court of Justice imposes a big fine on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jun 2024

The ECJ announced earlier today a €200 million fine on Hungary, for failing to fully comply with its decision of December 2020 on how the country should change its asylum system, plus a €1 million fine for each day of further delay in complying with that ruling. The said decision was that Hungary...

The May CPI data is out: this is when rising inflation is actually good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was reported at -0.1% mom, 4% yoy, the latter rising in the second consecutive month from March's cyclical low of 3.6% yoy and April's slightly higher 3.7% yoy. This increase was not at all unexpected, especially in view of the often recalled unfriendly base eff...

First reaction to yesterday's election: no great success for Fidesz
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2024

To sum it up, Fidesz did relatively well in most respects, winning the European election in the Hungarian vote and keeping most of their positions at the local government elections, compared to the previous local elections in 2019, and even winning new positions here and there. But they have lost...

The government completed the acquisition of Budapest Airport
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024

Just as expected, the government has acquired a majority stake in Budapest Airport, the Economy Ministry announced yesterday. They bought an 80% stake for €3.1bn (HUF965bn or 1.2% of GDP), the rest purchased by the French airport management company Vinci Airports. Analysts commenting on the deal ...

Largely mediocre numbers this week, from the growth point of view at least
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2024

This morning, the front page of KSH's website started with the pretty good-looking report that the volume of gross industrial output grew by 6.4% yoy in April. Yes, for sure, but there were three more workdays (21) in April 2024 than in April 2023 (18). Consequently, the seasonally and day-adjust...

Detailed Q1 GDP affirms preliminary data, reflects improvement but also an unhealthy structure
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

This morning's detailed KSH data on Q1 GDP affirmed the preliminary 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy growth, a marked improvement from Q4 2023's 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy figures (all on sda basis): Further reasonably good news is the 0.6% qoq, 3.4% yoy expansion measured for household consumption, especially after all...

April budget details confirm fiscal adjustment is taking place
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2024

The detailed figures of the central government's cash budget for April confirm our previous evaluation that fiscal adjustment, very much required given the high fiscal deficit ratio, is actually taking place. As reported earlier, the central government's (the government sector less local governme...

A stormy meeting in the European Council, once again because of Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2024

The EU's Foreign Affairs Council, the version of the European Council in which member states' foreign ministers participate, discussed EU financial assistance to Ukraine yesterday. As Reuters reported, before and at the meeting, a number of ministers, including those of Germany, Ireland, Lithuani...

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