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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Election Monitor VI: SA launches its 7th Administration; Ramaphosa’s second term is a new chapter in a rapidly shifting political structure
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Jul 2024

After weeks of socio-political anxiety and following intense political horse trading, President Ramaphosa unveiled the composition of his 2nd Cabinet Ministers. Unlike his first term, his party could not secure sufficient voter support to govern alone. Instead, the ANC decided to invite a wide ra...

Election Monitor V: The national elections - The birth pangs and excitement of a “True Democratic Election” process
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2024

On June 14, South Africa witnessed the excitement, the anxieties and the uncertainties inherent in a national election in which the results have no outright winner. For thirty years, the national elections were fair and transparent, yet the results were largely predictable, and the inauguration o...

Webinar Replay - South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review: Expectations vs Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the results of South Africa's elections and their key policy implications. What will South Africa's near-term governance trajectory look like and will the public sector's ability to deliver be restored? What is the outlook for economic...

Slide Presentation: South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review - Expectations vs Outcome
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Jun 2024

Understand the results of South Africa's elections and their key policy implications with the slide presentation from our webinar, "South Africa’s 2024 Post-Elections Review - Expectations vs Outcome".

South Africa’s current account turns favorable as terms of trade improve in Q1 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jun 2024

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2024, while South Africa’s current account continued its trend of consecutive deficits since Q2 2022, the deficit was noticeably smaller than that of the preceding quarter. The defic...

Echoing the uncertain election mood, the South African economy shrinks in the first quarter of 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2024

Real quarterly GDP contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024. This was following an expansion of 0.3% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2023 and a contraction of 0.4% q/q in the third quarter of 2023. This latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started 2024 on an an...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps interest rates steady following the nation’s general elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 May 2024

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, the sixth consecutive time it has done so. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year, which also came a day a...

Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2024

In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders. Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court ...

The South African economy in a precarious state pre-elections
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 May 2024

• South African growth: The South African economy’s slowdown continued in 2023 from 2021’s robust recovery – economic expansion in 2023 was just under a third of the growth rate registered in the preceding year. Although it had moderated by the end of the year, load-shedding reached its peak in 2...

Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...

Election Monitor II: National elections outcome growing more unpredictable, but more profound
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

In its first truly competitive and pluralistic elections since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the SA National Elections predictions are becoming more and more complex, and the outcome more unpredictable, leading to a blend of excitement and anxiety. Since my last Election Monitor, the Speaker of...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged amid ongoing sticky inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged, a decision that was largely expected. This comes after the Bank’s MPC held the repurchase (repo) rate unchanged for four consecutive meeting...

SA Election Monitor I: National elections fever is rising—and sharply so
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

South Africa's 2024 elections are expected to be the first of its truly democratic process. This is because since 1994, and the dawn of the new constitutional democratic order, the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) meant that the outcomes of the national elections were highly predi...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....

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