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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The legislative election and the Mulino inaugural speech: we give the benefit of the doubt with mixed feelings
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2024

As anticipated, the ad-hoc coalition that favored the government of José Raúl Mulino won the Presidency of the Assembly with 44 votes by electing Dana Castañeda, a last-minute candidate, supported by Ricardo Martinelli directly and (his) Realizando Metas party as a group. This election confirms M...

Events of July 1: What Should We Anticipate?
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

Election of the Legislative Assembly's Directive Board Out of the 71 legislators established by the Constitution, only 70 will be present for the election of the directorate of the National Assembly (president, vice presidents, and general secretary). The candidate Zulay Rodríguez, who was defeat...

The economy slowed through April while Mulino builds his team with pro-market figures. We discuss the Mulino-Martinelli relation and its implications. The July election of the new Legislative Directorate is key for reforms.
PANAMA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

First quarter data, as well as data from April, indicate that exports and total investment fell, while consumption and imports increased. The IMAE showed a decrease of 2.1% in March and YoY cumulative growth of 0.04% in the first quarter. We forecast 2% real growth for the remaining quarters and ...

Mulino's cabinet is set, but the composition of the legislative Assembly is in doubt. Fiscal weakness and slow growth are challenges for the next administration.
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2024 · 2 responses

With less than six weeks to go until the new National Assembly is installed (and 25 days after the general elections on May 5), we still do not know the Assembly's definitive political composition. This uncertainty is mostly due to the strategy by a group of losing candidates and parties from the...

Brief 3: Mulino´s economic team is taking shape with today´s announcement.
PANAMA · In Brief · 16 May 2024

The Minister of Environment (Medio Ambiente) is Juan Carlos Navarro. Although under a different scenario this Ministry would be operating outside the traditional realm of the economic team, the current circumstance is unique due to the issue of Minera Panama (First Quantum). Mulino's position on ...

Brief 2: Felipe Chapman will be the new Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF)
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 May 2024

The first appointments of the economic team of President-elect José Raúl Mulino (JRM) were announced today. Felipe Chapman (56) will be the next Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF). Chapman earned a BA in Economics from Brown University and an MBA from INCAE Business School. He is the president...

Brief 1: the May 5 official results
PANAMA · In Brief · 14 May 2024

The official results gave Mulino the victory in a winner-takes-all contest José Raúl Mulino, 64, was proclaimed president-elect on Thursday, May 9. with 33.4% of the valid votes in an election in which a record 77.6% of registered voters participated. The winning alliance was composed of the Real...

Mulino's triumph and prospects for reforms ahead
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 May 2024 · 2 responses

As we forecast in our previous report, José Raúl Mulino was elected President of the Republic of Panama for the period July 2024 to June 2029. He garnered 34.3% of the vote, nearly ten percentage points ahead of Ricardo Lombana, who might have won if there were a runoff. Mulino, whose electoral s...

José Raúl Mulino could run next week…the Supreme Court hinted yesterday
PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

On April 25, just 10 days before the elections, Supreme Court Justice Olmedo Arrocha, who is handling the case of the unconstitutionality lawsuit against the Electoral Tribunal (TE) decision that allowed José Raúl Mulino to run as a presidential candidate, issued a public statement. In this state...

The calm before the storm: the good news from 2023 and what lies ahead for the economy and fiscal situation in 2024
PANAMA · Report · 26 Mar 2024

In 2023, real GDP growth reached 7.3%, despite the November social crisis. Growth was driven by traditional sectors such as construction, commerce, transportation, and real estate. Monthly indicators suggested a slowdown in Q3, with a contraction in Q4. Construction activity, supported by public ...

Ricardo Martinelli (via his alter ego José Raúl Mulino) leads the polls by a wide margin
PANAMA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

Today, the newspaper La Prensa published the latest presidential survey, in which José Raúl Mulino leads voter preferences with 26%, followed by a technical tie among candidates Ricardo Lombana (10.8%) of the MOCA party, Martin Torrijos with the Popular Party (10.8%), and Rómulo Roux (10.2%), lea...

Public sector cash flow and the IMF Article IV Report update
PANAMA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

In 2024, the public sector faces a projected 3.9% decline in total revenues due to the absence of significant one-time occurrences from the previous year, while primary expenditures are expected to rise by 8.6%. This increase is primarily driven by growth in current expenditure, particularly payr...

Balancing the books, shifting the landscape: the NFPS deficit and Martinelli's disqualification
PANAMA · Report · 15 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Despite having to resort to accounting artifices, the government upheld the fiscal ceiling, as highlighted by credit rating agencies and analysts. In 2022, the Non-Financial Public Sector deficit was 3.98% (when the legal limit was 4.0%), and in 2023, it fell below the required 3.0%. In the last ...

The verdict from the Supreme Court is out: Martinelli will not run in the 2024 elections; he will go to prison and pay a fine.
PANAMA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2024

Today, the Supreme Court rejected the appeal for annulment filed by Martinelli's legal team, marking the last opportunity for the former president to challenge the verdict of a 128-month prison sentence and a fine of USD$19.2 million for money laundering (in the "New Business" case) to purchase a...

Martinelli's political fate and debt sustainability analysis: both with implications for 2024
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2024

Ricardo Martinelli faces the outcome of his appeal in the corruption case against him. Media and analysts are speculating about the date of the Supreme Court decision, likely confirming the guilty verdict. We conducted a debt sustainability analysis aiming to estimate the level of primary bala...

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