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Politics: The second round of six Sheinbaum cabinet choices is also reassuring, but the toughest decisions remain
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

A week after winning kudos for her first batch of a half dozen cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum reprised that performance by unveiling six more who also garnered praise, even from some of López Obrador’s critics. The president-elect again reassured economic and political actors by bringing in peop...

Economics: Recent economic indicators suggest that 2024 GDP growth will break slightly below 2%
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024

The economy continued to slow during the second quarter. After first quarter aggregate demand slowed to 2.6% YoY, indicators for April revealed a further loss of momentum, with the monthly GDP proxy (0.9% yoy) sputtering to its lowest reading in 30 months. Industrial activity only crawled 0.6% hi...

Economics: Aggregate demand data points to slowdown as services slow slightly and consumption of domestic goods remains stalled
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2024

First quarter aggregate demand and supply figures show demand expanded 2.6% yoy, down from the 3.7% pace of 2023. Private consumption, the weightiest demand component, grew 2.6% yoy in the quarter, after having risen 3.5% in 2023. This component’s performance varies considerably depending on the ...

Politics: Sigh of relief in general at Sheinbaum’s first batch of cabinet pics, but the jury’s out until all are named
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2024

Observers from across the political spectrum gave a thumbs up for all but one of the six cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum announced on June 20. They are in addition to current Minister of Finance, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, whom the President-elect announced on June 3 would remain in that post once ...

Economics: External and internal risks weigh on historically high FDI over the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024

FDI remained high through 1Q24, but new investment flows have slowed to a trickle, and we look for both internal and external factors to seriously limit inflows over an intermediate time horizon. At 20.313 billion dollars, foreign direct investment in Mexico in the aggregate turned in a favorable...

Politics: The extent of the next legislative majority and AMLO’s "Plan C"—two transcendental issues
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024

In the wake of the June 2 federal elections, the composition of the next Congress and López Obrador’s "Plan C" proposal to reform the Judiciary have emerged as the two main points of political debate. Morena lawmakers have announced that the open parliament discussions on the judiciary that virtu...

Economics: Wage growth remains strong even as hiring slows along with economic activity so far in 2024
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024

Labor indicators for the first four months of the year point to employment remaining at high levels, with growth concentrated in formal employment. Yet we also continue to witness a deceleration from 2023 growth rates, in keeping with the behavior of the economy. Despite this slowing, which can p...

Politics: Landslide Sheinbaum and Morena victory, as a greatly weakened opposition strives to avoid an incumbent supermajority in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024

Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in this month’s presidential election had been expected, although few anticipated the almost 60% share of the vote she attained. The Morena-led coalition’s presidential vote grew by almost seven million while the opposition appears to have lost 2.7 million votes. Al...

A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024

A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections The surprising magnitude of the victory of Morena and its allies in all the elections held on June 2 caused a profound change in the distribution of political power that will last for many years. A victory of Claudia Sheinbaum was...

Economics: Indicators released in May point to an economic deceleration
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2024

Economic indicators released over the course of May confirm a gradual but sustained weakening of economic activity, which adds to other internal and external economic challenges that will be exacerbated during 2025. The signs of weakening not only extend throughout the supply components, but also...

Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Mexico Elections: At a Crossroad
MEXICO · Report · 31 May 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Mexico’s elections and their potential impact on the country’s macro and politics. What are the main drivers of the electoral outlook in 2024? Will the new government preserve adequate macroeconomic fundamentals? Will Morena and its al...

Economics: Persistent inflation in Mexico represents challenges for Banxico's monetary policy
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024

Last week two very relevant data items were released in terms of expectations for the reference rate for this year. These were the inflation figures for the first half of May and the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of May 9. Consumer inflation for the first half of May 2024 amounted to ...

Politics: Post-election scenarios—the governability challenges
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2024

With the presidential, Chamber of Deputies, and Senate elections a week away, attention is already being focused on possible post-June 2 scenarios. With innumerable undefined factors at play, a post-election conflict is almost inevitable. If the race is close, whoever loses would likely challenge...

Politics: Races tighten; although Sheinbaum remains in the lead, the scenario of a reduced margin is more likely
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024

The presidential contest has narrowed recently due to a slight decrease in pro-Sheinbaum voting intentions while Xóchitl Gálvez has held steady, and the only candidate to pick up more support is third place challenger Máynez, although he remains just outside double-digit ranges. One online poll, ...

Economics: Indicators for the first months of 2024 suggest a gradual yet sustained weakening of economic activity
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024

The first months of 2024 have witnessed a gradual but sustained weakening of economic activity that comes on top of other economic challenges, both internal and external, that will be exacerbated during 2025. On the supply side, the monthly GDP proxy IGAE showed 1.9% yoy average growth for the...

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