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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 1Q24 entrenches theme of CA return to "normal" deficit position
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 1Q24 allows us to assess overall external performance in the region in the first quarter of the year. The key theme that we have argued previously, i.e., that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of ...

Jun CCA Highlights: Armenia cuts rates, inflation rears its head in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia's 1Q24 GDP growth impresses, higher tariffs take a toll on Uzbekistan's inflation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in Jun: Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent Armenia: Inflation returns in May Armenia: Net remittances drop in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit during Jan-May Armenia: Foreign reserves inc...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Jun 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenian central bank sticks to rate cuts, for now
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

Against a background of robust economic activity but still subdued inflation, the central bank implemented its fourth rate cut this year, lowering the key refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent. Cumulative cuts since the start of the easing cycle last May have now amounted to an impressive 27...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Does the Uzbek sum's appreciation have legs?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jun 2024

The Uzbekistani sum has generally been the weakest currency in the CCA region for many years for reasons related to powerful underlying relative price movements that have dominated the sum's movements since the opening of the economy in 2017. Hence, any episode of a more sizable strengthening of ...

May CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 9.2% in 1Q24, Azerbaijan and Georgia stick with rate cuts, Uzbekistan's CPI jumps on higher utility tariffs, Tajikistan grows by 8.3% in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 May 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 9.2% YoY in 1Q Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows to 10.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Deflation lingers on in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit in 1Q24 Armenia: Foreign reserves decrease to U...

Webinar Replay - Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 May 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan. Why is Armenia growing at around twice projected GDP rates and what is PM Pashinyan's strategy for staying in power? Is Georgia headi...

Slide Presentation: Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2024

Get insight into the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects".

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 May 2024

While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set i...

April CCA Highlights: Armenia's deflation persists, Azerbaijan's GDP growth strong in 1Q, Georgia buys gold, Uzbekistan raises utility tariffs, Tajikistan summons Russian ambassador
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

We comment on the key economic developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia in April: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 15.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Central Bank lowers refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.25% Armenia: CA posts a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2023 Armenia: Gross external debt ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual eco...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Analysis of growth drivers points to upside risks to economic performance in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

The publication of the national accounts data for 4Q23 allows us to investigate in more detail the breakdown of growth drivers across Caucasus and Central Asia economies for the year (2023) as a whole. The most salient feature of our analysis is that the counter-intuitive (and counter-cyclical) i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CAs return to "normal" deficit positions in 2023 (and beyond)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 4Q23 allows us to assess overall external performance in 2023. Our key conclusion is that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of excess monetary inflows (remittances) from Russia has mostly come to a...

CCA Highlights: Armenia boasts stellar early 2024 growth, Azerbaijan cuts rates, Georgia's outlook upgraded by Moody's, Uzbekistan sees continuing declines in gas output
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2024

We comment on the key macro and political stories in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator soars to 16.3% y/y in Feb Armenia: Budget posts large deficit in Feb Armenia: PM argues that GDP is growing above its potential Armenia: PM claims Azerbaijan may start war...

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