UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
NBU cuts prime rate to 13.0% amid increased confidence in financial inflows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024
The NBU Board cut the prime rate once more by 0.5 ppts to 13.0%, effective June 14. This marks the third prime rate cut since the start of the year and the seventh decrease since July 2023, when the NBU began its easing cycle. In a press release, the NBU cited still-low inflation (+0.6% m/m and 3...
New mobilization law: shifting towards a militarized society
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2024
Ukraine is implementing new mobilization rules. The recruiting rules in 2022 were very lenient for a full-scale war of attrition. In the early days of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians mobilized voluntarily, and volunteers comprised the core of the army that defeated the Russians in 2022. However,...
NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024
The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....
A burst of Russian brutality
UKRAINE · Report · 23 Apr 2024
Ukraine has since mid-March faced unprecedented air raids targeting energy infrastructure, unlike anything seen since the start of the war. In previous years, such as 2022-2023, Russian strategy focused on disrupting energy supplies, to cause nationwide blackouts. But now the focus has shifted to...
Collapse of the Western narrative
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Mar 2024
The gloomy sentiments of winter have transformed into a “we’ll cope with that” attitude. Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka due to a shortage of ammunition, while the Russians employed new tactics of distant, massive barrages with guided aerial bombs. The retreat was painful, but the withdr...
NBU surprised with a minor prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 14.5%, effective March 15. This decision came as a surprise to the market, especially following the January announcement that a minor prime rate cut might only be considered in the second half of 2024. The main justification for this unexpected m...
Dancing on the edge of an abyss
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024
The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...
Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024
The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...
NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15%, updates forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024
As expected, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% on January 25th. Following a month of FX market turbulence, pausing rate cuts was a natural decision, particularly in light of the still-delayed financial support decisions from both the EU and the US for 2024. The press release sugg...