PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024
In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...
President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024
We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...
Boluarte government weakened further; economic recovery takes off in Q1 2024; BCRP’s 25bp cut surprises markets
PERU · Report · 16 Apr 2024
In this report we discuss recent political developments, with a focus on President Dina Boluarte; using high-frequency economic reports, we present our updated forecast, and argue that the economy rebounded in Q1 2024; and discuss the BCRP Board’s decision to cut rates by 25bp, surprising both ma...
Peru: pension funds withdrawal to be approved on Thursday
PERU · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024 · 1 response
As expected, today Congress scheduled the vote on the pension funds withdrawal bill at its Thursday congressional plenary. The bill calls for pension funds’ contributors to be able to withdraw up to four Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, or tax-inflation-indexed units). This would allow eac...
Peru: Prime Minister in Congress
PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024
Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...
Peru: Congress to approve a new pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024 · 1 response
Last night, Congress' Economy Commission approved by 17 votes (only 3 against) a bill approving the seventh private pension fund withdrawal. Initially the draft conditioned the 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, the inflation index units, amounting each to PEN5,150 or US$1392) withdrawals ...
Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024
In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...
Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response
Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...
Peru: Pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024
The risk of a new pension fund withdrawal has increased recently, although we believe that the probability remains at 40%. Congress-member Jose Luna Galvez, owner of the Telesup University and Podemos political party, which has strong influence on Congress's Consumer Defense Commission, is pressi...