MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio Gonzalez
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdes
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National SecurityDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Politics: The second round of six Sheinbaum cabinet choices is also reassuring, but the toughest decisions remain
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024
A week after winning kudos for her first batch of a half dozen cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum reprised that performance by unveiling six more who also garnered praise, even from some of López Obrador’s critics. The president-elect again reassured economic and political actors by bringing in peop...
Economics: Recent economic indicators suggest that 2024 GDP growth will break slightly below 2%
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2024
The economy continued to slow during the second quarter. After first quarter aggregate demand slowed to 2.6% YoY, indicators for April revealed a further loss of momentum, with the monthly GDP proxy (0.9% yoy) sputtering to its lowest reading in 30 months. Industrial activity only crawled 0.6% hi...
Economics: Aggregate demand data points to slowdown as services slow slightly and consumption of domestic goods remains stalled
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2024
First quarter aggregate demand and supply figures show demand expanded 2.6% yoy, down from the 3.7% pace of 2023. Private consumption, the weightiest demand component, grew 2.6% yoy in the quarter, after having risen 3.5% in 2023. This component’s performance varies considerably depending on the ...
Politics: Sigh of relief in general at Sheinbaum’s first batch of cabinet pics, but the jury’s out until all are named
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2024
Observers from across the political spectrum gave a thumbs up for all but one of the six cabinet picks Claudia Sheinbaum announced on June 20. They are in addition to current Minister of Finance, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, whom the President-elect announced on June 3 would remain in that post once ...
Economics: External and internal risks weigh on historically high FDI over the medium term
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024
FDI remained high through 1Q24, but new investment flows have slowed to a trickle, and we look for both internal and external factors to seriously limit inflows over an intermediate time horizon. At 20.313 billion dollars, foreign direct investment in Mexico in the aggregate turned in a favorable...
Politics: The extent of the next legislative majority and AMLO’s "Plan C"—two transcendental issues
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2024
In the wake of the June 2 federal elections, the composition of the next Congress and López Obrador’s "Plan C" proposal to reform the Judiciary have emerged as the two main points of political debate. Morena lawmakers have announced that the open parliament discussions on the judiciary that virtu...
Economics: Wage growth remains strong even as hiring slows along with economic activity so far in 2024
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024
Labor indicators for the first four months of the year point to employment remaining at high levels, with growth concentrated in formal employment. Yet we also continue to witness a deceleration from 2023 growth rates, in keeping with the behavior of the economy. Despite this slowing, which can p...
Politics: Landslide Sheinbaum and Morena victory, as a greatly weakened opposition strives to avoid an incumbent supermajority in Congress
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2024
Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in this month’s presidential election had been expected, although few anticipated the almost 60% share of the vote she attained. The Morena-led coalition’s presidential vote grew by almost seven million while the opposition appears to have lost 2.7 million votes. Al...
A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Jun 2024
A first glance at the new political map after the June 2 elections The surprising magnitude of the victory of Morena and its allies in all the elections held on June 2 caused a profound change in the distribution of political power that will last for many years. A victory of Claudia Sheinbaum was...