BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Up, Up and Away: Inflationary Impulses Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jul 2024
Recent inflation dynamics are showing unfavorable signs that require attention. IPCA-15 underlying measures accelerated, and the pressure is expected to continue, reflecting an economic activity close to or above full employment. Simultaneously, the depreciation of the real causes an additional s...
Much Ado About Nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jun 2024
Decree 12.079 has been published, establishing the legal framework for changing the methodology of inflation target measurement: instead of verifying whether the target has been met (i.e., whether the observed inflation was within the tolerance range defined by the National Monetary Council, CMN)...
Promises That Cannot Be Kept
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2024
In line with the statement released last week, when Copom announced the decision to halt the monetary easing cycle and maintain the Selic rate target at 10.50% per year, the Minutes of the meeting came out quite harsh, signaling no room for a reduction in the basic interest rate in the coming mon...
Reality Check
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2024
Domestic demand will continue to lead growth throughout the year, as it did in the first quarter, while GDP is near or above potential. Thus, we expect part of the additional demand to be met through increased imports (and/or reduced exports) and that GDP growth in 2024, also reflecting the negat...
Webinar Replay - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook. What is the Central Bank of Brazil signaling about the future of the country's monetary policy? How will the increasing inflation expectations b...
Temporary Relief in the Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
This time there were no surprises as the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided, as expected, not only to maintain the target for the benchmark interest rate at 10.5% per year but also did so unanimously, scaling down – at least for now – fears of another divided decision, which...
Slide Presentation - Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2024
Get insight into Brazil's monetary and fiscal policy and its impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Brazil: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly".
The Challenge of Seasonality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2024
According to the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC), broad retail fell 1% in April, a contraction following 2.5% growth in the first quarter. However, it is noteworthy the discrepancy between this result and the growth of restricted retail (0.9%), vehicles and parts (1.6%), and building materials ...
A Hostile World Demands Coherence in Economic Policy Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2024
The depreciation of the Brazilian real, which began late last year, has gained momentum in recent months. Part of this movement occurred alongside the appreciation of the dollar, but recently domestic factors have been predominant. The currency weakening occurs despite a positive exchange flow, d...